I personally am a big fan of the return we got for Kovalchuk, and I believe the playoffs this season is not out of the question. We’re not contenders, no sir, but we have a very ripe opportunity to completely rebuild the team for next season. Ideally Waddell gets the pink slip for the Kovalchuk debacle and Dudley is calling the shots, but let’s assume Waddell is here even next season.

We have a massive amount of unrestricted free agents that goes like this:

UFA
Slava Kozlov
Colby Armstrong
Jim Slater
Maxim Afinogenov
Eric Boulton

Pavel Kubina
Christoph Schubert
Mark Popovic

Johan Hedberg

RFA
Bryan Little
Niclas Bergfors

Kari Lehtonen
Ondrej Pavelec

2010-2011 Assumptions
Assuming every one of these guys are out the door (which we know won’t be the case), that leaves us at a cap hit of 27.898 mil giving us nearly 30 mil for the free agent market.

We can assume that Kozlov is done, Max is out the door, and Hedberg may retire. We can also assume that Kari Lehtonen will be traded. On the farm, we can assume that Angelo Esposito is not going to play in the NHL and Holzapfel, Machacek, and Kulda will be call-ups but not full-timers come next season.

The organization seems pretty keen on Armstrong and Boulton and I will assume they’re both here to stay. If you don’t think so, then share your thoughts.

Little and Bergfors are here to stay. Pavelec, too.

If we make the playoffs, we won’t pick high in the draft (and NJ’s 1st round pick certainly won’t be high), and that means we’ll get a couple Daultan Leveilles that won’t be ready for a few years, but Cormier in the other hand is expected to make the lineup.

2010-2011 Problem
We have a game of fill-in-the-blanks to play, applying the assumptions. These are what the lines look like as of Kovy’s last game vs. TBL.

_________________-Antropov-Little
White-Peverley-_________________
Kane-Slater-Armstrong
Boulton-Reasoner-Thorburn
Bergfors

Kubina-Enstrom
Bogosian-Hainsey
Valabik-Popovic
Oduya

Pavelec
_________________

Also, we’ll have a lot of salary to hand out.

Solutions?
OFFENSE
Kane might be ready to step up to a top line role. He’s a goal scorer, and it’s time we put him in a sure position to do so. Peverley to first line and centering. Antro on RW. Keep familiar teammates on the top line.
Kane-Peverley-Antropov

Keep Bergfors on RW. Trade White. Cormier on left wing. Little to second line and centering.
Cormier-Little-Bergfors. Already things look different.

We have a blank on LW (or RW) on the third line, now. While I’d like someone with a sick backcheck and solid defensive awareness like Spencer Machacek to fill this role, Atlanta may look to bulk up scoring talent in the market to replace Kovalchuk’s scoring. Test the free agent market for this guy. Reasoner promoted a line and centering.
Free Agent-Reasoner-Armstrong

I’m still sold on the Greek Gods. Keep them together.
Boulton-Slater-Thorburn

DEFENSE
Put Swede and Swede together.
Oduya-Enstrom

Sign Kubina to a short deal. Pair the vet and the youngin’
Kubina-Bogosian

Sign Schubert. Hainsey has earned a spot on the third pairing.
Hainsey-Schubert

EXTEND
Kubina short term
Schubert short term–replaceable in FA market
Boulton short term–replaceable in FA market
Slater long term
Armstrong long term
Little long term
Bergfors long term

Free agent market: 2nd/3rd line scoring talent and a legitimate backup goaltender. Chicago will have a hard time parting with Mannino, so I believe we’ll have to nab a goaltender in the market.

Dan Ellis, Peter Budaj, Martin Biron, Alex Auld, Antero Niitymaki (lol), Pekka Rinne are all pending UFAs…not saying we have a chance to sign all of them, but the list of UFA goaltenders is quite a list. Justin Pogge, Antii Niemi, and Jonas Gustavsson are RFAs we may have luck with handing an offer to.

The greatest scoring talents we can realistically acquire (if their teams show no interest in re-signing them) are Frolov, Torres, and Ponikarovsky. Eager (RFA) may be available to pry off the Hawks.

Front Office/Staff Changes

• You could cite bad luck with major talents all you want, but the man responsible for building the team around these talents is responsible for putting the franchise in the state it’s in. I’d like Waddell fired. Promote Dudley, and I have faith in his ability to salvage the franchise.
• John Anderson has until mid-November to prove he can make a winner out of his team with the addition of some young guys like Cormier and Bergfors. If that’s too much to ask, then he’s gone along with his system in favor of Cunneyworth. I’m losing patience.
• Steve Weeks out, Hedberg hired to a coaching position.
• New marketing department.

I’m not a GM, coach, scout, or cap expert. These are just my opinions, but you can’t deny that this team is going to look very, very different as soon as next season. Kovalchuk’s absense alone is the (missing) elephant in the room. We’re in very ripe condition to bring serious change and make the team competitive without Kovalchuk. There are ample opportunities this offseason. We just have to do things right.

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Check out my latest article on THW. 5 reasons I believe the Thrashers can and should make the playoffs this season.

I’m by no stretch a sports journalist or a numbers expert. Just a dedicated fan making observations. Here are my 2009-2010 Eastern Conference predictions.

15. The Ottawa Senators. I don’t see sunny days for the Sens from their on-ice product to their new nickname “The Sens.” The Heatley situation means two things. Ottawa loses Heatley, and they lose a big chunk of their offensive punch (albeit such can be filled with the addition of Kovalev), or Ottawa keeps Heatley, and you have an uncommitted superstar and a potentially out of place power forward in Kovalev. Unfortunately for the Sens, young, healthy, and full of spunk doesn’t compute for Kovalev. A playoff berth would be a miracle, and a basement finish shouldn’t surprise anyone.

14. The Tampa Bay Lightning. A lot of ifs lie on the Bolts. If Hedman is the savior to the Bolts subpar-at-best defense, if Stamkos will continue an upward trend or move sideways this season, if the loss of Prospal means anything… It’s too preliminary to say Hedman, Ohlund, and Walker are the real answers after last season’s offseason splash ending up a colossal disaster.

13. The New York Islanders. The Isles are finally ready to climb out of the hole, but are nowhere near ready to return to glory. Like the Lightning, the Islanders depend on many ifs. The show is the John Tavares show, and the Islanders did a superb job overhauling their goaltending into something potentially spectacular. Don’t let your guard down on these Islanders, but don’t worry about battling for a playoffs spot.

12. The Florida Panthers. Florida has suffered one of the worst offseasons in the last decade in losing Bouwmeester. It’s not hard to find talent in scoring, but it is a stretch to find anyone committed to bringing the Panthers back to the playoffs.

11. The Atlanta Thrashers. As a Thrashers fan, I have a lot to say, but I’ll keep it short. The Thrashers are a better, stronger team. Unfortunately, the Thrashers could either reach a low playoff berth or could sink to the bare bottom depending on how Ilya Kovalchuk sees the team’s progress and how he will play out the final year of his contract. The only additions are addition by subtraction plus Pavel Kubina on the blueline, Nik Antropov thrown in the Thrashers rising scoring talent. I personally think this team has improved vastly, but will still need to perform some miracles to make another playoffs appearance.

10. The New York Rangers. Replacing Gomez, Naslund, and Zherdev with Gaborik was foolish. Marian Gaborik has yet to prove that he can stay healthy for a whole season, and if the trend continues, the Rangers don’t have much to fall back on. Defense isn’t quite elite, and Lundqvist can only take the team so far by himself. The Rangers will trade in sticks for clubs after a short season.

9. The Toronto Maple Leafs. A team clearly working harder and on the rise. Except for Antropov at the deadline, this team hasn’t suffered much loss, but did gain Komisarek which will greatly boost their defensive woes. They will be a legitimate fighter for a playoffs spot, or perhaps even slide their way in with ease. Luke Schenn should make the Maple Leafs a talked-about team in the near future, too.

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8. The New Jersey Devils. This is undoubtedly a team heading in an ugly direction, but nothing leads me to believe they’re no longer a playoffs contender. They still hold arguably the greatest goaltender in league history, and the loss of Gionta and Madden may prove insignificant for a team looking to become younger and faster, which will make for an interesting training camp in New Jersey.

7. The Buffalo Sabres. Strong organization, and very good (at best) on the blueline, and a great scoring that seems to never improve. I’m very keen on Montador replacing Spacek, and that should help their quality goaltending tandem in Miller and Lalime. The Sabres have consistently put in a good fight for the playoffs, and I think this is the year for them.

6. The Montreal Canadiens. The Canadiens seem to be going in a direction that most teams never think about…chipping off Europeans that nearly caused the Habs to miss the playoffs and replacing them with North Americans like Cammallerri and Gionta that could turn Montreal into a scoring powerhouse. The Habs are on a slow and steady recovery, and are a team that shouldn’t miss the playoffs this season.

5. The Philadelphia Flyers. The Flyers may have made a terrible mistake in letting young talent like Sbisa and Lupul free for Chris Pronger. Granted Pronger may be the final piece to Philadelphia defensive puzzle, there’s the ifs of Philadelphia: if Briere stays healthy, if Emery is ready to re-appear in the NHL. Until we have a clear answer, the Flyers don’t look like a team to take a division title. Still, the Flyers can’t and won’t miss the playoffs.

4. The Carolina Hurricanes. After the way the Canes finished the 08-09 campaign, and knowing that the Hurricanes suffered no major losses neither at the trade deadline nor the offseason (but did add Alberts to boost their blueline), and knowing that Cam Ward finished that season playing some of his best goaltending I’ve seen, the Hurricanes are equipped to soar in the standings this season.

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Southeast Division Champion
3. The Washington Capitals. Realistically, if the Capitals aren’t ready to make a finals appearance this coming season, it’s next season. The Caps continue to improve piece by piece, and have an ownership that’s committed to carefully putting pieces in place. With a strong ownership, confident coaching, and no major losses, the addition of Knuble can only improve the team. Also, if Varlamov lives up to expectations and shows consistency, a finals appearance for the Capitals is not at all out of the realm of possibility. Keep your eyes open on this year’s Capitals.

Atlantic Division Champion
2. The Pittsburgh Penguins. An elite team whose core still has yet to hit their primes, and an essentially unchanged team, the Penguins are still elite, and the story will not change in the foreseeable future. They are a team that plays strong with one man down (see Crosby in 07-08), a team that nearly missed the playoffs and improved fast enough to win the Stanley Cup (08-09), the Pens are nearly invincible. Should the Pens lose in any round of the playoffs, including a likely consecutive finals appearance, it won’t happen in less than 7 games. Love ‘em or hate ‘em, you will hear about the success of the Penguins for a long time.

Northeast Division Champion
President’s Trophy Winner
1. The Boston Bruins. Make no mistake. The Bruins are the best team in the NHL, and of the two conferences, they are the PT winners. I’m not keen on losing Montador to Buffalo, but Morris is a fine substitute for a blueline that is excellent at worst. I argue that team Thomas/Fernandez is also the best goaltending tandem in the league. I still question how they fare in the playoffs, but for the regular season, you can put your money on the Bruins taking the Northeast, the Conference, and depending on how you see San Jose, the President’s Trophy.

Catching up on The Falconer’s blog from quite a few weeks ago, I somehow overlooked this:

“Chi-town Thrash lays out his off season plan for the Thrashers. He’s dead wrong about Colby Armstrong of course, but the rest of it is interesting.”

After reading what I wrote two posts ago, I may have misworded my action plan. By “replace” Colby, I meant replacing his position on the top-6 so he could be moved to Reasoner’s line. There’s no way, no how I’d want to let him walk. Also, I stated that Colby Armstrong should replace Perrin’s position on the third line. If, after this correction, I’m still dead wrong, then I’ll put my thinking cap on. Thanks for the acknowledgement, Falconer!

Now for the questioning. A few days ago, Mark Bradley posted a blog suggesting that the Thrashers trade Ilya Kovalchuk before the beginning of the season. I acknowledge Mark as a fine writer, but I heavily disagree, especially in regards to his comparison to Marian Hossa. But Mark is also about the hypotheticals, so shall I. He recently asked Thrashers fans if they would miss the Thrashers should they move. I’ll propose another hypothetical question.

If the Thrashers traded Ilya Kovalchuk, who would you build the team around, and why?

I ask that every fan reading this can take a minute to answer. I’m not interested in backhanded answers like “Bryan Little because he’s awesome.” I’d like to use your responses in an article I’ll write for The Hockey Writers.

I know I said I’ll be back at training camp, but some juices are flowing this offseason, and there’s much to write about.

Hey, readers. Though Chi-Town Thrash is new, I apologize for abandoning it. On the other hand, it is a looooooong offseason for the Thrashers and I’m not a fan of speculation. That is why I have a hard time writing about the draft or free agency. Until it actually happens, I’m daydreaming.

To make it very clear, I plan on writing regularly at the start of training camp. Happy summer, everyone! I’ll see ya in September!

Anyway, if I’m not the one writing, I’d like to throw out two advertisements to the people who ARE writing:

1. The OFFICIAL BLUELAND BLOG has moved. Check it out, and a sincere thanks to Ben for linking me!

2. Keep your eyes out on THE HOCKEY WRITERS. Bookmark it, check it often. There’s a ton of talented, even professional writers, there, and they want an audience. I write for the Atlanta Thrashers, and I plan on coming out with some big articles after the finals and after the draft.

And check out some NHL downloadables all from me. Use them wherever and whenever, but don’t take credit for them. I’ll hunt you down, and polietely tell you not to do that.

I’m not sure what else to do in a hockey offseason (for all intents and purposes when you’re a Thrashers fan). Sit back and reflect on the season, how atrocious and awesome it was at the same time. Atrocious: the Atlanta Thrashers could contend with the Islanders for the worst team in the league in 08-09. Awesome: By the end of the season, it was contending with Colorado and Tampa Bay, and I sit here and laugh at the Dolts.

Colorado was by far a disappointment. Joe Sakic: you make $6 mil a year. Why are you using a snowblower? Starting in the 07-08 season, the Avalanche injuries were just mind blowing. By the end of the ‘09 season, it was the Lake Erie Monsters, and the Wolves were able to shut them out 5-0. My hat is off to Colorado for their worst season since the Nordiques in the early 90’s. I bow my head in mourning.

This is probably one of the more annoying offseasons for a Thrashers/Wolves fan living in Chicago. I’ve acknowledged the massive bandwagon, but I’m starting to remember a time that I was perfectly content and in peace as a Thrashers fan because nobody cared about hockey. Nobody. Now, suddenly, I face harassment via phone calls, text messages, Facebook, and most notably in the hallways of my c0llege campus telling me how much my team sucks. These same people harassing me could name probably 2 Blackhawks, one of them being “Kane” without knowledge of a first name. It’s pathetic. I always thank myself for loving hockey when the rest of Chicago didn’t, but being a hockey fan is pretty annoying for the first time.

Anyway, what about the Thrashers. In a nutshell, here’s what needs to happen from now and be done no later than October 1:

• Let Eric Freakin’ Perrin walk far, far away, not even glancing in his direction or acknowledging that he ever played for the NHL. Despite the impression he made to NHL Live a few weeks back, he is an AHL player. If he can’t even find his groove in Tampa Bay, he doesn’t have a snowball’s chance in hell succeeding on a team like Anaheim or Washington. He also meant what he said to the AJC, and late-season surge or not, Colby Armstrong can replace one of the few players in the league shorter than me. What’s the hurt in adding a little extra scoring to our checking line?
• How do we replace Colby? Get that f**king depth/upgrade that Kovalchuk is asking for, Mr. Waddell. We might be one RW away on the top 6 for contending, or (as much as this hurts like hell to say) we may have to trade White. I struggle with that one, though, as he’s a perfect fit for Anderson’s system and he’s had the best season of his career. I’d try for a RW and make a White trade a really big plan B.
• Re-signing Kovalchuk is obvious, but I almost hate the idea of smothering him with all this “priority number one” stuff that’s been so vocal to the media. Keep his interest in mind. Priority one should be setting the stage for Kovalchuk to re-sign, not just plain re-signing him. There’s no direction for the future yet. If he’s not re-signed by season start, let him Hossa us.
• Draft MSP. That’s it. If he’s taken 3rd… Duchene. These are the guys ready to make an immediate impact, and the Thrashers may need that if Atlanta’s still not an attractive place for attractive free agents. And for the love of holy Christ, do not trade ANY of our 1st or 2nd round picks.

That is all. Your thoughts, readers?

Here’s a personal note to Rawhide at the AJC: thanks for linking up my blog, and my sincerest apologies for my negligence in keeping up with it.

Been a while since I’ve posted here. In case you’re wondering, I’ve shifted my concentration to The Hockey Writers, as I am the Atlanta Thrashers representative there. Check them out, you won’t regret it.

But I will comment quickly on tonight’s game versus the Florida Panthers. This game was a skill show-off by both teams. Anderson (29 saves) and Hedberg (35 saves) both had incredible nights. Peverley’s first goal was absolute skill, perfect judgment, and executing a play from Armstrong just like the elites do it.

Although the Thrashers won this one, the save of the night belongs to Anderson with that fishtail-like save from Jimmy Slater’s breakaway. I don’t think I’ve ever yelled “What, are you kidding me?” so loudly before, but in retrospect, it was an unbelievable save.

It’s the most exciting low-scoring game I’ve ever watched. Hedberg did have some nice saves, but Anderson had the dandies of the night. And with Campbell’s nice goal, you wonder why these Florida Panthers didn’t take this game. I’m still wondering that.

Great game. Finish strong, boys!

I called into NHL Live today. I asked about Cooke’s hit on Bogosian and the bias that is shown for the better teams, specifically with the Penguins over Atlanta.

http://surrendered.org/nhl/briannhllive2.mp3

Check out my thoughts on the Thrashers during this 6-game win streak. Very exciting stuff (the streak, maybe not my writing).

http://thehockeywriters.com/six-cess-thrashers-making-breaking-records/